In the same way, this 2017 article:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01643-9

Singh, A., Thomsen, K.J., Sinha, R. et al. Counter-intuitive influence of Himalayan river morphodynamics on Indus Civilisation urban settlements. Nat Commun 8, 1617 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01643-9

Abstract

Urbanism in the Bronze-age Indus Civilisation (~4.6–3.9 thousand years before the present, ka) has been linked to water resources provided by large Himalayan river systems, although the largest concentrations of urban-scale Indus settlements are located far from extant Himalayan rivers. Here we analyse the sedimentary architecture, chronology and provenance of a major palaeochannel associated with many of these settlements. We show that the palaeochannel is a former course of the Sutlej River, the third largest of the present-day Himalayan rivers. Using optically stimulated luminescence dating of sand grains, we demonstrate that flow of the Sutlej in this course terminated considerably earlier than Indus occupation, with diversion to its present course complete shortly after ~8 ka. Indus urban settlements thus developed along an abandoned river valley rather than an active Himalayan river. Confinement of the Sutlej to its present incised course after ~8 ka likely reduced its propensity to re-route frequently thus enabling long-term stability for Indus settlements sited along the relict palaeochannel.    

(...)

Our analysis suggests that the palaeochannel is a former course of the Sutlej River. Between 15 000 and 8000 years ago the Sutlej avulsed (migrated) to its present day course to the northwest. The abandonment of the former course left a topographic low formed by the former channel in the landscape.

We suggest this provided an ideal environment for the Indus people to have inhabited and built their settlements. The abandoned channel would have captured monsoon-derived river flow and enabled ponding of water. Muddy sediment would have settled out of suspension providing rich soils. And importantly with the big Himalayan river hundreds of kilometres away, the palaeochannel would not have been prone to catastrophic floods.

The former valley of the Sutlej likely offered favourable conditions that led Indus populations to preferentially settle and flourish along its banks. 

This offers an alternative model for how rivers can nucleate the development of ancient urban settlements.

(...)

Le 6 nov. 2022 à 17:32, Madhav Deshpande via INDOLOGY <indology@list.indology.info> a écrit :

Thanks, Asko.

Madhav

Madhav M. Deshpande
Professor Emeritus, Sanskrit and Linguistics
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Senior Fellow, Oxford Center for Hindu Studies
Adjunct Professor, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore, India

[Residence: Campbell, California, USA]


On Sun, Nov 6, 2022 at 8:24 AM Asko Parpola via INDOLOGY <indology@list.indology.info> wrote:


Begin forwarded message:

From: Asko Parpola <aparpola@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [INDOLOGY] Question
Date: 6. November 2022 at 18.16.53 EET
To: Madhav Deshpande <mmdesh@umich.edu>


Nowadays it appears that monsoonal rivers gradually dried in the Indus Valley around 1900 BCE and that this was a major cause for the decline of the Indus civilization:

Giosan, Liviu, Peter D. Clift, Mark G. Macklin, Dorian Q. Fuller, Stefan Constantinescu, Julie A. Durcan, Thomas Stevens, Geoff A. T. Duller, Ali R. Tabrez, Kavita Gangal, Ronojoy Adhikari, Anwar Alizai, Florin Filip, Sam VanLaningham, and James P. M. Syvitski, 2012. Fluvial landscapes of the Harappan civilization. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109 (22), 29 May 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1112743109. 
Abstract: The collapse of the Bronze Age Harappan, one of the earliest urban civilizations, remains an enigma. Urbanism flourished in the western region of the Indo-Gangetic Plain for approximately 600 y, but since approximately 3,900 y ago, the total settled area and settlement sizes declined, many sites were abandoned, and a significant shift in site numbers and density towards the east is recorded. We report morphologic and chronologic evidence indicating that fluvial landscapes in Harappan territory became remarkably stable during the late Holocene as aridification intensified in the region after approximately 5,000 BP. Upstream on the alluvial plain, the large Himalayan rivers in Punjab stopped incising, while downstream, sedimentation slowed on the distinctive mega-fluvial ridge, which the Indus built in Sindh. This fluvial quiescence suggests a gradual decrease in flood intensity that probably stimulated intensive agriculture initially and encouraged urbanization around 4,500 BP. However, further decline in monsoon precipitation led to conditions adverse to both inundation- and rain-based farming. Contrary to earlier assumptions that a large glacier-fed Himalayan river, identified by some with the mythical Sarasvati, watered the Harappan heartland on the interfluve between the Indus and Ganges basins, we show that only monsoonal-fed rivers were active there during the Holocene. As the monsoon weakened, monsoonal rivers gradually dried or became seasonal, affecting habitability along their courses. Hydroclimatic stress increased the vulnerability of agricultural production supporting Harappan urbanism, leading to settlement downsizing, diversification of crops, and a drastic increase in settlements in the moister monsoon regions of the upper Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh.

Giosan, Liviu, William D. Orsi, Marco Coolen, Cornelia Wuchter, Ann G. Dunlea, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Samuel E. Munoz, Peter D. Clift, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, Valier Galy, Dorian Q. Fuller, 2018. Neoglacial climate anomalies and the Harappan metamorphosis. Climate of the Past: Discussions. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-37 
Abstract: We show that strong winter monsoons between ca. 4,500 and 3,000 years ago occurred during an interval of weak interhemispheric temperature contrast, which we identify as the Early Neoglacial Anomaly (ENA), and were accompanied by changes in wind and precipitation patterns across the eastern Northern Hemisphere and Tropics. This coordinated climate reorganization may have helped trigger the metamorphosis of the urban Harappan civilization into a rural society through a push-pull migration from summer flood-deficient river valleys to the Himalayan piedmont plains with augmented winter rains. Finally, we speculate that time transgressive landcover changes due to aridification of the Tropics may have led to a generalized instability of the global climate during ENA at the transition from the warmer Holocene Optimum to the cooler Neoglacial.

The 30 feet of flood silt at Mohenjo-daro as “flood evidence” was discussed in the 1960s & 1970s:

Raikes, Robert L., & Robert H. Dyson, Jr., 1961. The prehistoric climate of Baluchistan and the Indus Valley. American Anthropologist 63: 265-281. Reprinted in: G. L. Possehl (ed.), Ancient cities of the Indus, 1979, pp. 223-233.

Raikes, Robert L., 1964. The end of the ancient cities of the Indus. American Anthropologist 66.2: 284-299. Reprinted in: G. L. Possehl (ed.), Ancient cities of the Indus, 1979, pp. 297-306.

Raikes, Robert L., 1965. The Mohenjo-daro floods. Antiquity 39: 196-203. 

Dales, George F., 1966. The decline of the Harappans. Scientific American 241(5): 92-100. Reprinted in: G. L. Possehl (ed.), Ancient cities of the Indus, 1979, pp.307-312.

Raikes, Robert L., 1967. The Mohenjo-daro floods — further notes. Antiquity 41: 64-66.

Lambrick, H. T., 1967. The Indus Flood Plain and the “Indus” Civilization. Geographical Journal 133 (4): 483-495. Reprinted in: G. L. Possehl (ed.), Ancient cities of the Indus, 1979, pp. 313-322. 

Dales, George F., & R. L. Raikes, 1968. The Mohenjo-daro floods: A rejoinder. American Anthropologist 70 (5): 957-961.

Raikes, Robert L., & George F. Dales, 1977. The Mohenjo-Daro floods reconsidered. Journal of the Palaeontological Society of India 20: 251-260. 

Raikes, Robert L., 1979. The Mohenjo-daro bfloods: the cdebate continues. Pp. 561-566 in: M. Taddei (ed.), South Asian Archaeology 1977. Neples. 

Best wishes, Asko Parpola


On 6. Nov 2022, at 15.53, Madhav Deshpande via INDOLOGY <indology@list.indology.info> wrote:

This question occurred to me recently. Does the massive flooding that Pakistan recently experienced give us some possibilities about the demise of the Indus Civilization? Are there any indications of such massive floods in Indus archaeology? I would appreciate any suggestions for reading on this topic. Best regards,

Madhav M. Deshpande
Professor Emeritus, Sanskrit and Linguistics
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
Senior Fellow, Oxford Center for Hindu Studies
Adjunct Professor, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore, India

[Residence: Campbell, California, USA]

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